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Research task 1: Validation and evaluation of climate projections – provision of climate scenarios for the application on waterways and navigation

Task manager:
Dr Annegret Gratzki, DWD,
Tel: +49 (0)69/8062-2989, annegret.gratzki@dwd.de

Deputy:
Joachim Namyslo, DWD,
Tel: +49 (0)69/8062- 2967, joachim.namyslo@dwd.de

Summary

Within the KLIWAS research programme, the Research task 1 consists in creating a sound database for the evaluation of climate change and its impacts on surface water bodies. This database comprises meteorological and oceanographic data acquired by measurements as well as data sets gained from computations with climate models in various climate scenarios for later use as reference data in the individual KLIWAS research projects.

Comparative analyses and assessments are being made with climate projections produced by different models in order to quantify statistical uncertainties of the model outputs. Moreover, a range of specific data-evaluation techniques is being employed to quantify the climate impact for water bodies.

Existing standard information products and services of the Deutscher Wetterdienst - DWD (National Meteorological Service) and the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) will be expanded and upgraded to meet the requirements of the BMVBS ministerial agencies to respond to potential consequences of climate change for maritime, coastal, and inland navigation as well as on the open sea, the coastal waters, ports, and river basins.



Workpackages scheduled under Research task 1 (overview)

  • Generation of gridded-data sets for climate-model validation from observation data covering the entire basins of the rivers Elbe, Oder, Rhine, and Upper Danube including the sub-basins in adjacent countries;
  • Compilation of oceanographic and maritime-meteorological reference-data sets to validate climate models applications in the areas of the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the adjacent North Atlantic;
  • Analysis of previous indications of climate change in the hydrological catchment area of Germany, in coastal regions, and in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea by means of the expanded database;
  • Checking, verifying, and quantifying error ranges in the applied regional climate simulations by comparing the model outputs of the control period with reference data, i.e. reliable analyses on the basis of measured/observed climate data. Analysis and presentation of the uncertainty range of climate projections and of the derived impact analyses by applying statistical methods to the outputs of different climate models;
  • Applying an objective weather classification situations to analyse the outputs of climate simulations in the control period and the projection;
  • Preparation of the climate-projection data for use in KLIWAS projekts including user support services.

The generated data sets and the analyses provide the basis for all subsequent application projects in the BMVBS research programme.

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