Climate Change Scenarios for the Maritime Area and their Parametrisation (2.01)

Dr Anette Ganske, BSH,
Tel: +49 (0)40 3190-3271, +49 (0)511 3908-9458, anette.ganske@bsh.de

Dr Sabine Hüttl-Kabus, BSH,
Tel: +49 (0)40 3190-3276, sabine.huettl-kabus@bsh.de

Dr Nils Schade, BSH,
Tel: +49 (0)40-3190-3270, nils.schade@bsh.de

Jens Möller, BSH, jens.moeller@bsh.de
Tel: +49 (0)40-3190-3278

Dr Hartmut Heinrich, BSH,
Tel: +49 (0)40/3190-3200, hartmut.heinrich@bsh.de

Dipl.-Met. Gudrun Rosenhagen, DWD

Dr Katharina Bülow, BSH
Tel: +49 (0)40-3190-3277, katharina.buelow@bsh.de




Objectives

Sea and atmosphere are related by a strong interdependency in their effect on climate. Climate change can cause changes which may have consequences, for instance, for the atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns and their temporal courses. Besides shifts in mean conditions, changes in the natural fluctuation and, in particular, in the intensity and frequency of extreme atmospheric and marine events can be expected. This project builds on the results of Project 1.03 “Atmospheric and Oceanic Reference Data and Climate Projections for Coastal and Open Sea Areas”.
The objective of this project is to estimate reliably the changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions and, as far as possible, to quantify them. In this project, the expected changes in the marine and atmospheric areas will be estimated by comparing them with the reference data sets with the help of suitable regional models. In accordance with the “multi-model method”, various assumptions will be made (e.g. regarding the development of emissions) and subsequently a range of results will be obtained for the impact on climate ranging from “at the worst or at the best, we can expect…”. The studies concentrate on future mean conditions, ranges of fluctuation, duration of events and extreme events. The area under study includes the North Sea and the Baltic Sea as well as the North Atlantic with a special focus on German coastal waters.