Project 2.04: Vulnerability of Hydraulic Engineering Systems at the North Sea and its Estuaries as a Result of Climate Change
Fred Hesser, BAW,
Tel. +49 (0) 40/81908-323, fred.hesser@baw.de
Ingrid Holzwarth, BAW,
Tel. +49 (0) 40/81908-425, ingrid.holzwarth@baw.de
Dr Elisabeth Rudolph, BAW,
Tel. +49 (0) 40/81908-361, elisabeth.rudolph@baw.de
Dr Annette Büscher, BAW,
+49 (0)40/81908-345, annette.buescher@baw.de
Dr Aissa Sehili, BAW,
Tel. +49(0)40/81908-416, aissa.sehili@baw.de
Dr Guntram Seiß, BAW
Tel. +49(0)40/81908-358, aissa.sehili@baw.de
Dr Rita Seiffert, BAW,
Tel. +49(0)40/81908-445, rita.seiffert@baw.de
Dr Norbert Winkel, BAW,
Tel. +49 (0) 40/81908-325, norbert.winkel@baw.de
Objectives
Longevity of infrastructure such as dikes, storm surge barriers and sluices requires planning and investment in coastal engineering in advance. As a consequence adaptation to climate change must be developed now, so that short-term action for responding to future situations can be optimised. Along with Project 3.02, this project will develop an optimised database of hydrodynamic information on climate change for waterways, ports and coastal protection and will develop methods which enable the testing of options for adaptation. This project as well as project 3.02 makes use of three-dimensional hydrodynamic numerical simulation (Mathematical Models for Coastal Areas and Estuaries - BAW-Methods-Wiki [en]) in order to investigate the German Bight and the North Sea estuaries of the Ems, Jade-Weser and Elbe. Since this system adapts very quickly to changes in external constraints (e.g. changes in mean sea level, in river discharge, in astronomical tide signal, in atmospheric pressure, etc.) these investigations are made for time slices which represent both present and future situations and also include typical and extreme conditions. Simulation periods from just a few days and to a whole year are investigated. The external constraints are varied individually or in combination in a systematic sensitivity analysis in order to understand the variability of the hydrodynamic system.
The results of the sensitivity study will be analysed with regard to specific characteristic numbers (Analysis of Calculated Results - BAW-Methods-Wiki [en]). For typical situations this will be tidal characteristic numbers such as high water level, slack water dislocation of flood current or tidal variation of salinity. For extreme situations characteristic numbers independent of tide such as duration of inundation, maximum current velocity or mean value of suspended sediment concentration are studied instead. A comparison of the characteristic numbers for today and for future situations enable an estimation of the degree to which the system is vulnerable to climate change. This project in combination with project 3.02 provides the physical elements for vulnerability studies and for the development of creative adaptation strategies.
The data sets obtained from the simulation will be analysed with regard to specific parameters. For typical conditions, this will be the tidal parameters according to DIN 4049-3, while parameters independent of tides will be ascertained for extreme situations. A comparison of the parameters for today and for future conditions then permits an estimation of the degree to which the system is vulnerable to climatic change.